Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
