Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.