Moving from Reluctant Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”